Chance Kelly

RSend in a naked audition tape...isn't that how they're doing it now?

RKelly's schedule is in some order, and we just pick one and fix it:1) Homeroom 2) English 3) History 4) Science 5) P.E. 6) Elective 7) MathLisa's schedule then is:1) Homeroom and 2-7) some permutation of the others.For convenience, we'll drop the names of the classesand just speak about the order Lisa has Kelly's subjectswhich we can call 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.There are 6! = 720 permutation of those 6 classes.Then the question is,in how many of them do more than one of 2, 3, 4, 5 coincide,and then we can apply the probabilities based on teachers.We know Math and Elective (6 and 7) will be different,so those don't count as possible matches, but they stillinfluence the number of permutations of the others.E.g., there are both 234567 and 234576 which can have up to 4 same classes among the first 4.Of the 6! = 720 permutations of all 6,the following numbers (done by computer)have some matching subjects:None have 5 or 6 matching subjects, since Math and Elective don't count.2 have 4 matching subjects16 have 3 matching subjects84 have 2 matching subjects.256 have 1 matching subjectsIn all cases there is 1/20 chance of matching homeroom,and when subjects match, 1/3 chance of being in the same class.If they have the same homeroom (1/20 chance):If there is 1 matching subject (256/720 probability), there is a 1/3 chance they are in the same classif 2 matching subjects, there is a 2/3 * 2/3 chance that both matches are different classes,and 1 - 4/9 = 5/9 chance they are in the same class in at least one of those two.so there is a 84/720 * 5/9 chance there.if 3 matches it's 16/720 * (1 - 2/3 * 2/3 * 2/3) = 16/720 * 19/27.for 4 matching subjects it's 15/358 * (1 - (2/3) ^4) = 2/720 * 65/81.So for same homeroom we have:1/20 * (256/720 * 1/3 + 84/720 * 5/9 + 16/720 * 19/27 + 2/720 * 65/81)If they have different homerooms (19/20 chance)it becomes:1 matching subject: 0 probability of 2 same classes2 matching subjects: both have to be the same, so we get 84/720 * 1/93 matching subjects: we need 2 or 3 out of 3 =3 * 1/3 * 1/3 * 2/3 (for the case of 2) +1 * 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3 (where all 3 match) = 6/27 + 1/27 = 7/27 which we multiply by 16/7204 matching subjects:we need 2 out of 4:6 * 1/3 * 1/3 * 2/3 * 2/3 + 4 * 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3 * 2/3 + 1 * 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3= 24/81 + 8/81 + 1/81 = 33/81 which we multiply by 2/720So for different homerooms we have19/20 * (84/720 * 1/9 + 7/27 * 16/720 + 33/81 * 2/720)and overall for both same and different homeroom,we have:1/20 * (256/720 * 1/3 + 84/720 * 5/9 + 16/720 * 19/27 + 2/720 * 65/81)+19/20 * (84/720 * 1/9 + 7/27 * 16/720 + 33/81 * 2/720)=0.0289 or about 2.9%To confirm that result, I did a simulation with 100,000 trials,and the results were:Number of matching classes among 1-5: percent of total0: 76.010 %1: 21.113 %2: 2.669 %3: 0.202 %4: 0.006 %which matches the calculation to a "T"!

RI know two people that got in but they got there really early and were chatting up the producers.

RTriple H - RAW /So he can continue feud with Randy Orton.Rey Mysterio - Smackdown /Because they have lost there Dominican/hispanic audience.Announcers to switch shows but if that doesn't happen don't expect it to happen for a long time.They also said they are going to beef up the RAW roster.and there are also reports Edge - ECWand The Undertaker - RAWAlso Kelly Kelly is hot!

RNot at all likely, in this day and age. When a child is born, the hospital will normally perform blood tests and record the baby's weight, etc. Also the child is given a wrist or foot tag, which will state their full name and the date and time they were born to avoid any confusion. For you to have been switched at birth, with no one noticing you would have had to have had the same first name and surname as the other girl, as well as being born within the same minute, be exactly the same weight and have the same blood type. The reason that the few cases where children have been switched at birth (such as the one that happened in the US in the late 1970s) are so famous is because it is so unlikely.

RAndrew is watching the same football as me. Oklahoma is awesome!

RYour chances of getting an FE slot are slim to none, unless you have a certification in aircraft maintenance or a private pilot's license. The Air Force requires previous service in an aircraft-related AFSC or a civilian certification of experience with airplanes to become an FE.Your chances of getting a loadmaster slot are slightly better. When I enlisted, loadmaster was a critically manned career field, meaning that loadmaster manning is low across the AFSC. I believe it was recently (within the past month or two) removed from the list of critically manned career fields, though, so apparently AFPC (Air Force Personnel Center) has decided that they have an appropriate number of loadmasters.The hardest part is getting a loadmaster slot. Relative to the other jobs, loadmasters have low turnover, so there are relatively few openings, so it's hard to get one going in to basic training - I lucked out, maybe you will too. If you're really dedicated, you can just tell your recruiter that you'll hold out for a loadmaster slot. But you may very well wait for a year. I went through tech school with a guy that had to wait a year and a half for his loadmaster slot.Once you get the loadmaster slot, it's a piece of cake. The tech school is intense, but if you put your mind to it, you can do it easily. The hardest part is the first two months, they teach you the basics of being an enlisted aircrew member, and then the basics of being a loadmaster. You're tested on each training block, and then you're tested at the end of each course. Two test failures (less than 85%) in one course will knock you out of the program and cause you to be re-classed.After that, you have SERE (Survival Evasion Resistance & Escape school), water survival, and LIQ (loadmaster initial qualification, where you learn everything you need to know about being a loadmaster on the airplane you get picked for). LIQ is a few months, and differs between airframes. For C-17s (I'm a loadmaster on C-17s), you go through three or four months of school at Altus AFB, in Oklahoma. LIQ for C-130s is at Little Rock AFB, AR, and C-5 LIQ is at Kelly Field, Lackland AFB, TX.

RIn my opinion, Kelly Kelly is not fit to hold that championship. By saying that Kelly Kelly should be WWE Women's Champion, then I guess your saying that this title is a fluke. Fabulous Moolah held that belt for 28 years, and Kelly is not even fit to lace her boots, sorry KK. She's been improving but c'mon, can you really see her headlining PPV's against Beth Phoenix, Melina, Michelle Mccool, etc.? Nope. They would carry her through those matches.And what shocks me about this, is that seeing as how WWE.com included her in their "Top 25 Most Impactful Women" list, then it's possible that she might even get that push. I don't like it.

RKelly has replaced Up to the Mountain with three different covers for her current summer fair tour:Some Girls Have All the Luck - Rod StewartWalking After Midnight - Patsy ClineIf - Janet JacksonIt makes sense that with 4 whole albums of material to choose from that she can't keep every cover in her set forever. Up to the Mountain had a good run of 18 months - 2 years in her set.

RBe a Ravens fan. You can still like the Ravens and still like Peyton Manning. Test this: when Peyton retires, are you still going to like/root for the Colts, or is it just a strictly Peyton thing?It's totally cool to like players on other teams. I absolutely dislike the Ravens (ok, I'll be real here), I hate the Ravens. Nothing personal, but strictly business. I am a Steelers fan. It's kind of like a law that we have to follow. :) But hey, it's cool. As a Ravens fan, you hate the Steelers, and it's all good. Why? Because it's expected. Anyway, I do like Ed Reed on your team too. I am a respectful fan and will not talk crap. I also like Peyton as well, as well as Chris Cooley, Isaac Bruce, Adrian Peterson, and Dan Marino, John Elway, and Jim Kelly of the older stars that once were.